UK General Election Prediction Model
Current Polling and Estimated Result
A projection of how the UK would vote if a General Election would be held today based on current polling weighted by recency and historic pollster accuracy. The model predicts the result in every constituency in Britain excluding Northern Ireland using 10000 simulations.
Poll Narrowing
There has been a small but noticeable narrowing in the polls, suggesting a closer election than previously predicted. The Conservative Party is still favored to win, but the Labour Party has made gains in recent weeks.
Sunak's Surprise Announcement
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak surprised many by calling a general election for July 4th. Polls show that the Conservative Party is in dire straits, but Sunak is hoping to capitalize on the current momentum and secure a victory.
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